组合预测模型在铁路货运量预测中的应用

货运量预测是铁路运输规划的基础，单一预测方法很难准确有效地进行运量预测。探讨组合模型在铁路货运量预测中的应用，以全铁路货运量及社会经济发展状况为样本，对未来铁路货运量进行预测。实证预测结果表明：组合预测模型能有效综合各模型的有用信息，从而提高模型预测精度，与单一模型相比，该方法具有较好的实用价值。

Application of combination forecast model to the railway freight volume forecasting

Freight volume forecast is the foundation of the railway transportation planning. A single prediction method is difficult to accurately and effectively forecast the traffic volume. A combined model is proposed with its application to the prediction of railway freight volumes, with the railway freight volume and the status of the socio economic development as a sample, and the predictions for the future railway freight volume. Empirical prediction results show that the combination forecast model can effectively integrate the useful information of each model in order to improve the forecast accuracy of models. mpared with the single model, the method proves to be with practical value.