贝叶斯网络对隧道施工风险评价研究

为提高地铁隧道施工中风险评价的准确性,完善现有风险评估方法在处理不确定性分析方面的不足,运用贝叶斯定理对深圳市某地铁项目进行风险评价。首先通过构建风险拓扑结构模型,预测各种情况下地铁施工风险的发生概率,然后利用反推法分析事故风险的机理,最后采用互信息理论完成风险评价,找出致险因子。结果表明,该隧道工程施工风险概率为3.24%,地铁施工安全隐患是该工程最大的致险因子。

Bayesian network research on tunnel construction risk assessment

In order to improve the veracity of risk assessment in metro tunnel construction and to complete the shortcomings of the existing risk assessment methods in dealing with the qualitative analysis of uncertainty,this paper uses Bayes’theorem to conduct risk assessment for a subway project in Shenzhen.Firstly,by constructing a risk topology model,it predicts the probability of subway construction risk under various conditions,then uses the back-push method to analyze the mechanism of accident risk,and finally uses mutual information theory to complete the risk assessment and finds the risk factor.The result shows that the tunnel construction takes the risk probability of 3.24%,and the subway construction safety hazard is the largest risk factor in the project.