基于出行决策分析的发车频率计算

出行时间过长是公交出行率偏低的重要原因之一，而出行时间与公交线路发车频率密切相关，有必要研究发车频率对居民出行决策的影响。基于居民出行调查数据，分析出行决策影响因素，利用随机效用理论，建立选择方案为自行车与公交的BL模型，并在MATLAB环境下采用Newton．Raphson法编程求解，预测出行时间对公交出行率的影响；进而分析发车频率对公交出行时间的影响，最终得到公交出行率与发车频率的对应关系，由此计算给定公交出行率下的发车频率。文中通过计算实例说明该方法在计算发车频率及评价公交运营调度方案优劣上具有实用价值。

Travel Frequency Calculation Based on Trip Decision Analysis

Overlong travel time caused by unreasonable departure frequency of bus is a key factor for low transit trip ratio in many medium-and-small cities of china presently, so it is necessary to study how the departure frequency influences transit trip decision. Based on the resident trip survey data, the authors analyzed the trip decision influencing factors,established a BL model that exists bike and transit selection schemes according to the random utility theory, and solved the BL model with Newton-Raphson method under MATLAB program environment： Then the corresponding relation between the transit trip ratio and departure frequency was obtained, by which the reasonable departure frequency can be determined under agiven transit trip ratio. Acalculation example was done, which proved the method proposed in this paper is practical in determining the departure frequency as well as evaluating the dispatching schemes.