| 基于情景分析法的北京市道路省际客运需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊琦,虞明远.基于情景分析法的北京市道路省际客运需求预测研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2006,4(4):94-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊琦 虞明远 |
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| 作者单位： | 交通部公路科学研究院,公路交通发展研究中心,北京,100088 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文介绍了研究中长期发展战略的一种先进的预测方法，即情景分析方法。并将谊方法具体应用于北京市道路省际客运需求预测实例．通过情景分析方法预测，可得出不同层面的政茕措施，从而为有关部门提供决策依据．
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| 关 键 词： | 道路运输规划 运输需求 预测 情景分析方法 |
| 文章编号： | 0000-0000（2006）00-0094-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年2月28日 |
Transport Demand Forecast of Beijing Area Inter-provincial Road Passenger Based on Scene Analysis Method |
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| XIONG Qi,YU Ming-yuan.Transport Demand Forecast of Beijing Area Inter-provincial Road Passenger Based on Scene Analysis Method[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2006,4(4):94-99. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Qi YU Ming-yuan |
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| Abstract: | A forecast method for studying the mid and long term road transport development strategy - scene analysis method - was introduced, which is applied in forecast of the inter-provincial road passenger transport demand in Beijing metropolitan area. By forecast and based on the scene analysis method, the alternative policy options in different fields and levels are gained, and these can supply a kind of decision support for policy makers. |
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| Keywords: | Road transport planning transport demand estimation scene analysis method |
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