人因海事事故深层致因的博弈分析

针对我国人为失误致因的海事事故数量庞大、损失严重的现状,应用博弈论构建由政府、航运企业、船员3方行为主体组成的博弈模型,通过对模型的纯策略和混合策略纳什均衡进行求解和详细分析,探讨人因海事事故的深层致因,即相关政府部门对船员利益重视程度不够.最后给出了减少人因海事事故、提高海运安全的对策建议.

Analyzing Human Error in Maritime Transportation in China Based on Game Theory

Considering human error leads to a large number of maritime accidents and serious economic losses every year in China,the study builds a tripartite game model composed of government,shipping companies and senior officers to analyze the deeper reason of high incidents of maritime accidents caused by human error.By analyzing the model＇s pure strategy and mixed strategy Nash equilibrium,it shows that relevant government do not pay enough attention to senior officers＇ interest is the main reason of high incidents of maritime accidents caused by human error.Finally,it recommends measures to improve maritime safety,and provides theoretical frame of reference for the healthy development of maritime industry.