基于Logit模型的城市低碳交通分担率研究

随着世界各国能源政策向可持续化方向发展,低碳问题已经成为国内外研究的热点,特别是在交通运输领域,因为低碳因素对于未来城市内部各种交通方式势必会造成影响,即各种方式分担率的变化.Logit模型是预测城市客运交通分担率的一种比较成熟的方法,文中选择经济性、快速性、方便性、舒适度、安全度、低碳因素6个服务特性建立广义费用函数,结合Logit模型建立各交通方式分担率模型,采用相关调研数据和极大似然估计法,确定模型参数,计算因低碳因素的变化前后的分担率差异,并根据碳交易价格机制计算低碳因素的经济效应.

Urban Low-carbon Transport Share Rate by Logit Model

As the world energy policy is developing in the direction of sustainability,low-carbon problems have become a hot spot at home and abroad,especially in the field of transportation.Low-carbon factor will inevitably affect various modes of transportation within cities in the future,as the change of share rate.A Logit model which is applied in the urban passenger transportation share rate prediction is a mature approach.A generalized cost function is created by the service features of economy,speed,convenience,comfort,safety and low-carbon factor.The share rate model of various transport modes by Logit model is created,and the model parameters are determined by relevant research data and the maximum likelihood estimation method.Thus,the change share rate is calculated before and after low-carbon factor are involved,and economic effects of low-carbon factors are calculated based on the price mechanism of carbon trading.