制造企业物流外包决策的临界效应

分析了在制造企业的物流外包过程中存在的临界点和临界效应．在临界点前后，制造企业的经济效益急剧增加或减少，出现物流外包的临界效应．用系统论中的“白箱”模型描述物流外包决策的临界效应．投入要素包括物流外包总成本、制造企业所能提供的物流服务水平以及内部的物流管理能力．外包总成本按外包比例确定，服务水平分解为供应比率、按时配送能力和灵活性指数，内部物流管理能力用德尔菲法确定。产出要素指企业的整体经济效益．用系统分析的方法确定投入产出要素之间的相互作用，用邹氏检验法确定并验证临界点．

Critical Effect of Decision Making for Logistics Outsourcing of Manufacturing Enterprises

There is a critical point,where the profit of a manufacturing enterprise increases or decreases dramatically,in the course of logistics outsourcing of the enterprise.The critical effect was described with a "white box" model of system theory.The input factors include total cost of logistics outsourcing,logistics service level and logistics management ability of the enterprise.The total cost of logistics outsourcing is determined according to the outsourcing scale,the service level consists of fill rate,ability of on-time distribution and a flexibility index,and the logistics management ability is evaluated with Delphi technique.The output of the "white box" is the total profit of the enterprise.The interaction between the input and output was discussed with system analysis method,and the critical point was determined and validated with Chow test method.