铁路客票预订需求预测模式

对当前铁路运输客票预订系统进行了分析。研究了建立动态多席订票需求预测模式。针对不同等级订票需求，引用泊松分布来描述不同时段，不同等级的订票到达率。当实际资料难以获取时，以ｍｏｎｔｅ ｃａｒｌｏ模拟产生资料进行参数估计，最后动态规划的方法的方法建立了获取最大利益的模型，以实际数据代入运算，结果与实际情况相吻合。

A Prediction Model of Demand for Passenger Ticket Booking on Railways

By analyzing the current railway transportation passenger ticket booking system, a prediction model of demand for dynamic multi-seats ticket booking is built. In view of the booking demands of different classes, Poisson distribution is employed to describe the booking arrival rates of different classes in different periods of time. Since the practical railway ticket booking rate is hard to be available, data generated by Monte Carlo simulation are used as numerical examples for estimation of model parameters through MLE approach. Moreover, a model for obtaining the maximum revenue is established by dynamic programming method, and a computation with the practical data shows that the result accords with the actual situation.