| 道路交通事故多层递阶预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李相勇,田澎,张南,龙俊仁.道路交通事故多层递阶预测方法[J].西南交通大学学报,2006,41(1):107-110. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李相勇 田澎 张南 龙俊仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海交通大学安泰管理学院,上海,200052
2. 西南交通大学交通运输学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对道路交通系统动态时变的特点，用多层递阶预测方法，建立了道路交通事故的多层递阶预测模型．将事故预测分解成对时变参数的预测和在此基础上对道路交通事故未来状态的预测两部分，通过对时变参数的精确预测提高事故预测精度．以1989—1999年我国某省道路交通死亡人数为原始数据建模，模拟结果显示，对2000-2001年的预测结果和实际道路交通死亡人数之间的平均误差为5．8％．
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| 关 键 词： | 道路交通事故 多层递阶模型 时变参数 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0258-2724（2006）01-0107-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-09-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-09-14 |
Multi-level Recursive Forecasting Method for Road Accidents |
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| LI Xiang-yong,TIAN Peng,ZHANG Nan,LONG Jun-ren.Multi-level Recursive Forecasting Method for Road Accidents[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2006,41(1):107-110. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiang-yong TIAN Peng ZHANG Nan LONG Jun-ren |
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| Institution: | 1. Antai School of Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China; 2. School of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the dynamic and time-varying characteristic of a traffic system,a multi-level recursive forecasting method was proposed,and a multi-level recursive forecasting model for forecasting road accidents was established.With this method,forecast of road accidents is divided into two parts: forecast of timevarying parameters and forecast of road accidents based on the former forecast.The forecasting precision is improved by precise forecasting time-varying parameters.The death toll of a province in China from 1989 to 1999 was taken as statistical data to derive the forcasting model.Simulation result shows that the average error of the forcasted death toll is 5.8% compared with the real statistical data of 2000 and 2001. |
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| Keywords: | road accident multi-level recursive model time-varying parameter forecast |
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