管型航路中航空器自主运行模式

为了提升管型航路内航空器运行效率，降低飞行延误和冲突，首先选取了定速、超越和自由3种典型自主运行模式，并分析了其特点；其后，建立了管型航路中航空器自主运行仿真模型，并采用蒙特卡洛仿真与机器学习相结合的方法，分析了自主运行模式中关键变量的相关性；最后，以北京首都机场—广州白云机场高空航路为实例，建立了各衡量指标回归模型，并对3种模式典型指标进行了敏感性分析. 研究结果表明:自由模式中的吞吐量和总延误时间指标相对较好，但冲突率相对较高，冲突率最小值为0.036 1；超越模式中各项指标相对折衷，其航路资源的利用率不如自由模式，吞吐量约为自由模式的61.89%；定速模式中的航空器缺乏调整速度和间隔的调整能力，受航空器的初始间隔影响较为明显. 

Autonomous Operation Mode of Aircrafts in Tube Air Corridor

To improve the operational efficiency of aircrafts in tube air corridor, reduce flight delays and conflicts, three representative aircraft operation modes were analyzed including, the speed-based mode, speed-independent mode and self-separation mode. Then, an autonomous operation model was built by simulation, and the correlation between important variables in the model were analyzed in a way of combining the Monte Carlo simulation and machine learning. Finally, the upper air route between Beijing Capital Airport and Guangzhou Baiyun Airport was selected as a study case. The regression models for all metrics were established and sensitivity analysis was conducted for the typical metrics of three modes. The results show that in the self-separation mode throughput and delay time are desirable while the conflict rate is relatively high with a minimum of 0.0361. The speed-independent mode leads to moderate results, which implies a low utilization of route resource with about 61.89% throughput of the self-separation mode. The speed-based mode lacks the functions of speed and separation adjustment, which is obviously affected by the initial separation.