编组站列车溜放时间的估计方法

为了解决编组站列车解体作业中溜放时间不确定性较大的问题,将溜放时间作为因变量,解体钩数作为自变量建立线性回归模型,对溜放时间进行区间估计.利用得到的区间估计值,将列车溜放时间表示为模糊集,求模糊集的λ-截集,得到列车溜放时间的点估计值.以16辆列车的溜放作业为例进行算例分析,结果表明,与直接设定列车溜放作业时间的情况相比,通过模型求得的点估计值误差降低了50%.

Estimation Method of Humping Time in Marshalling Yard

To solve the problem that the humping time for trains is highly uncertain during the break up operation in marshalling yard,a regression model was built for interval estimation of the humping time,in which the humping time for a train is used as the dependent variable and the number of cuts in break up operation as the independent variable.With the obtained interval estimate value,the humping time of each train is expressed as a fuzzy set to solve for its λ-cut set and obtain the point estimate value of the humping time.The result of a case study involving 16 trains for hump operation shows that the estimation error of the point estimate value obtained by the model is 50% lower than that estimated by the current humping time standard.