| 空域扇区流量与拥塞预测的概率方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王超,杨乐.空域扇区流量与拥塞预测的概率方法[J].西南交通大学学报,2011,46(1):162-166. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王超 杨乐 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津,300300 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高扇区流量预测准确度、减小扇区拥塞预测的虚警率,分析了影响空中交通的随机因素,建立了航空器进入扇区时刻、穿越扇区飞行时间和离开扇区时刻的概率分布模型.利用进入、离开扇区时刻的累积分布函数,计算航空器占用扇区的概率,并在此基础上,提出了基于Monte Carlo仿真的扇区拥塞预测概率方法.算例仿真结果表明:与确定型拥塞预测方法相比,采用概率预测方法可将拥塞时段比例的平均值从42%减少到33%.
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| 关 键 词： | 空中交通流量管理 扇区流量预测 概率 拥塞预测 |
Probabilistic Methods for Airspace Sector Flow and Congestion Prediction |
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| WANG Chao,YANG Le.Probabilistic Methods for Airspace Sector Flow and Congestion Prediction[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2011,46(1):162-166. |
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| Authors: | WANG Chao YANG Le |
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| Institution: | WANG Chao,YANG Le(Air Traffic Management College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the accuracy of sector flow forecasting and diminish false congestion alerts,probabilistic models for sector entry time,sector transit time and sector exit time were established through analysis of the uncertain factors influencing air traffic operations.Then,a probabilistic method for calculating the sector occupancy by an aircraft was built using the cumulative distribution functions of sector entry time and exit time.On this basis,a probabilistic method for sector congestion predictio... |
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| Keywords: | air traffic flow management sector flow forecasting probability congestion prediction |
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