大型深层滑坡灾害及其预测

为了进一步探明大型深层滑坡发生机制，对今后发生潜在大型深层滑坡区域进行预测，通过对比分析近年来亚洲地区发生的多起大型深层滑坡，从诱发大型深层滑坡的地震与降雨两个主要方面，分析了特殊地层岩性在化学风化作用影响下与多种坡体结构在重力作用影响下的深层滑坡特征，以及降雨对于该类滑坡的形成所具有的促进作用。研究结果表明，对于由地震作用诱发的深层滑坡，应主要根据不同岩石种类的化学风化情况、深层滑坡形成的力学演化机制以及先行降雨对地震滑坡潜在位置进行预测；对于由降雨诱发的深层滑坡，应主要根据重力边坡变形与内部地质结构的地形特征对深层滑坡发生位置进行预测。 

Disasters Caused by Deep-Seated Catastrophic Landslides and Prediction of Their Potential Sites

In order to understand the mechanism of deep-seated catastrophic landslides and make prediction of their potential sites, some typical deep-seated catastrophic landslides occurred in Asia were analyzed comparatively. From the aspects of two landslide-inducing factors, earthquake and rainfall, the characteristics of landslides prepared by chemical weathering processes and gravitational deformation were analyzed. Rainfall plays a significant role in the occurrence of deep-seated catastrophic landslides. The results show that for the earthquake-induced catastrophic landslides, the potential site can be predicted by considering the chemical weathering of different kinds of rocks, mechanical preparation and antecedent rainfall; for the rain-induced catastrophic landslides, the topographic features of gravity slope deformation and the geological structures can be used for prediction.