桥梁技术状况预测的灰色马尔可夫链模型研究

提出将灰色马尔可夫链用于桥梁的技术状况预测中,以解决传统的回归分析模型无法考虑不确定因素对结构技术状况的影响和概率型模型对单一桥梁预测的局限性问题,提出了将灰色模型GM(1,1)与马尔可夫链有机结合起来,利用二者的优点充分考虑了桥梁技术状况的整体趋势和局部波动情况,最大限度地利用历史信息.通过对国外某桥的技术状况进行预测分析并与传统的预测方法进行对比,证实了该模型的预测精度.

GM(1,1)-Markov Model for Prediction of Bridge Technical Condition

With increasing age,the bridge technical condition prediction is becoming essential for bridge management authority to enable bridge to be maintained at minimum overall cost.In this paper,the application of GM(1,1)-Markov Model in individual bridge prediction is put forward.The GM(1,1)-Markov Model is a model combining Markov Model with Grey Model(1,1).When predicting,GM(1,1) represents the total deterioration tendency of bridge,on base of which Markov Model will take into account other uncertain factors leading to bridge condition improvement such as maintenance.This model to some extent settled the limitation of conventional regression model only for total tendency and probabilistic model merely used in bridge stock.In the end of this paper the model is applied in various bridge condition predicting,which gets good results.