既有桥梁的贝叶斯网络评估方法

结合贝叶斯网络的因果关系推理能力，将其用于对结构技术状态的推断，采用高斯贝叶斯网络对既有桥梁的评价方面作了初步的尝试．根据先验的各变量的统计特征，在找出各变量的因果关系、构建相应的贝叶斯网络后，即可以从观测到的信息中推断结构的技术状况，这对现有桥梁的评估具有实际意义．文中提出了既有桥梁的贝叶斯网络的构建和推理运算方法．并利用桥梁中受弯构件的安全度作为实例给出了说明．

An Inferential Way for Evaluation of Bridge Based on Bayesian Network

Bayesian network is a useful tool for causal inference. The paper initially applies Bayesian network into evaluation of bridge structure. To establish Bayesian network, the causal relationship between all variables are analyzed based on their prior probability. When new evidence becomes available, the posterior probabilities of a set of variables of structure condition can be updated, which has practical value for evaluation of the str,cture. In this paper, normal Bayesian network model is described together with an algorithm for numerical propagation of the updating. And finally application of the proposed inferential way is illustrated by a practical example.