倾斜船舶在随机海浪中的生存概率分析

应用安全池思想研究随机海浪中倾斜船舶大幅横摇运动及倾覆概率问题．船舶横摇运动微分方程充分考虑了船舶阻尼和恢复力的非线性以及海浪激励的随机性．应用谐加速度方法求解船舶非线性横摇运动微分方程．绘制了船舶在不同倾斜角下的安全池，并据此得出了船舶的安全概率．研究表明：倾斜角对船舶的稳性影响很大，在同等激励下，倾斜角越大，船舶的安全池面积越小，倾斜船舶在较小的海浪激励下就可以倾覆。

Survival Probability Analysis of Biased Ship in Stochastic Waves

The theory of safe basin developed abroad recently provides a new approach to predict the proba- bility of ship dynamic stability. Large amplitude rolling motion and survival probability of biased ships are investigated using safe basin theory. The nonlinear damping moment, restoring moment and random excitation are taken into accounted in the nonlinear rolling-motion differential equation. The safe basin is plotted and the survival probability of different heel angle ships is determined based on the safe basin theory. The differential equation is integrated by harmonic acceleration method. It is found that biased ships are more susceptible to external excitation than unbiased ships, the larger the heel angle, the less the safe basin area and small external excitation can result in the ship capsizing phenomenon occurring from numerical simulation results.