| 小流量下短时交通量预测最佳窗口长度与时间间隔 |
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| 引用本文： | 向红艳,朱顺应.小流量下短时交通量预测最佳窗口长度与时间间隔[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2006,30(4):626-628. |
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| 作者姓名： | 向红艳 朱顺应 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆交通学院交通运输学院,重庆,400074
2. 武汉理工大学交通学院,武汉,430063 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 探讨了小流量情况下，路段短时交通量预测中的可变时间间隔及预测窗口长度对预测精度的影响，分析了不同间隔序列在反映交通流特性方面的差别和最适合的预测窗口长度，并建立神经网络模型对预测效果进行了定量比较，得到序列用于预测的最佳窗口长度和一组最优时间间隔，有助于预测算法的改进和预测精度的提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通量 短时预测 时间间隔 小流量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年2月12日 |
Optimal Time Interval and Lookback Interval of Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction under Free Traffic Condition |
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| Xiang Hongyan,Zhu Shunying.Optimal Time Interval and Lookback Interval of Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction under Free Traffic Condition[J].journal of wuhan university of technology(transportation science&engineering),2006,30(4):626-628. |
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| Authors: | Xiang Hongyan Zhu Shunying |
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| Institution: | 2. School of Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074 ; 2. School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063 |
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| Abstract: | Under the free traffic condition, a research on time interval and lookback interval of short-term traffic flow prediction is proposed in this paper. The characteristics of the free traffic flow serials with different time interval are analyzed, and their performances are compared using neural network mod- el. Besides, every serial has been considered to have an optimal lookback interval when it is used to forecast, and this lookback interval is related to the time interval. The range of time interval has also been found, that could be used to improve the prediction methods, and get a higher accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Traffic Flow Short-term Prediction Time Interval Free Traffic |
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