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| 基于二次感染的道路交通事故黑点建模 | |
| 引用本文： | 盛玉刚,徐伟娟,过秀成.基于二次感染的道路交通事故黑点建模[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2010,34(2):405-408. |
| 作者姓名： | 盛玉刚 徐伟娟 过秀成 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,南京,210037 2. 东南大学数学系,南京市,210096 3. 东南大学交通学院,南京,210096 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目资助(批准号:50422283) |
| 摘 要： | 将道路交通系统简化成由人车体子系统、道路子系统和环境子系统3个部分构成的整体系统,在事故过程分析基础上,提出事故黑点形成必须具备的4个条件,即存在影响因素、影响因素具有感染性、感染必须达到一定程度、影响因素必须具有一定的集聚度.将人车体作为感染原生体,道路和环境因素作为感染源,构建事故黑点双因素二次感染生成模型,并给出危险率δ的置信区间近似解的计算方法,在此基础上扩展为多因素模型.论文最后根据某一级公路主要交通事故黑点统计数据,对模型进行实例验证. |
| 关 键 词： | 事故黑点 建模 二次感染 |
Modeling of Traffic Accident Black Spot Based on Secondary Infection |
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| Sheng Yugang,Xu Weijuan,Guo Xiucheng.Modeling of Traffic Accident Black Spot Based on Secondary Infection[J].journal of wuhan university of technology(transportation science&engineering),2010,34(2):405-408. | |
| Authors: | Sheng Yugang Xu Weijuan Guo Xiucheng |
| Institution: | School of Car and Traffic Engineering/a>;Nanjing Forestry University/a>;Nanjing/a>;210042/a>;China;Department of Mathematics/a>;Southeast University/a>;Nanjing 210096/a>;China;School of Transportation/a>;China |
| Abstract: | The highway system is simplified as a combination of driver-vehicle branch system,road branch system,environment branch system.Four factors are presented as the basic condition of black spot based on the analysis of accident process;they are existence of factors,infectiveness of factor,intensity of infectiveness of factor,centrality of factors.The double factor model of black spot is set up by taking the driver-vehicle as protoplast and the highway or environment as infection source.And the approximate solu... |
| Keywords: | traffic accident black spot modeling research secondary infection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |