交通运输方式协调发展的状态评价

为促进道路运输、铁路运输、水路运输与航空运输的协调发展,根据各运输方式的系统构成,分别从数量和质量方面提出了反映各运输方式发展水平的指标体系,利用主成分分析方法,对中国1995~2005年各运输方式的综合发展水平进行了计算,并建立了综合发展水平的隶属度模型,对它们之间的协调状态进行了评价。评价结果表明:运输方式之间的平均静态协调度为0.297 8,说明目前中国各运输方式虽然得到快速发展,但彼此之间的发展并不协调。为改变这种不协调发展状态,提出运输方式之间相互促进与相互配合的发展理念,完善运输政策体系,充分开发和利用各种运输方式,建立真正意义上的综合运输枢纽。

Situation evaluation of coordinated development among transportation modes

In order to promote the coordinated development among highway transportation,railway transportation,water transportation and air transportation,according to the components of every transportation mode,a set of index system was put forward from quantity and quality aspects,and the comprehensive development level of every transportation mode was calculated by principal components analysis in 1995~2005,then the model of degree of membership for the level was set up to evaluate the coordinated situation among the modes.Evaluation result indicates that average static state coordinated degree is 0.297 8,which shows that the modes develope quickly,but their developments aren't coordinated at present.To change the uncoordinated situation,the developing opinion of the modes' inter-promoting and inter-coordinating,consummating transportation policy system,exploiting and using the modes fully,and building real comprehensive transportation hub are put forward.4 tabs,3 figs,10 refs.