基于层次分析法的渤海海峡跨海通道项目投资风险分析

为了评估渤海海峡跨海通道项目的投资风险,利用层次分析法进行了投资风险分析,分解了影响渤海海峡跨海通道项目的各项因素,按各因素对项目总风险影响大小进行排序,分析了在项目进展过程中最应该把握的关键因素。分析结果表明:各子项目的影响程度从大到小依次是地理条件、技术水平、意外事件、资金、资源利用和政策法规;按风险由大到小将风险划分为4个级别,海底地质情况风险最大,防灾救援系统、照明系统等隧道项目中的基础功能设施风险较大,洞口防洪设施、隧道监控系统等设施风险较小,规划预留功能风险最小;最后对结果进行了解释,项目规划者与投资者可以参考分析结果进行风险管理。

Risk analysis on Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel investment based on analytic hierarchy process

In order to evaluate the risk of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel,analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was applied,the factors of impacting the project were decomposed,the various factors were ranked based on the risk degree to the project,and several key factors for the project were studied.Analysis result indicates that the factors of impacting the project from large to small are geographical conditions,technological level,accidents,capital,resource use,policy and legislation.Four ranks are divided based on the risk degree to the project,the risk of submarine geology conditions is the highest,the risks of disaster prevention and rescue system and lighting system in tunnel project are higher,the risks of flood prevention facilities and tunnel monitoring system are lower,and the risk of plan function is the lowest.Last the results are explained,and the planners and investors of the project can carry out the risk management according to the result.5 tabs,1 fig,11 refs.