| 内贸海轮进出长江驾引力量需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷兴中,张树奎.内贸海轮进出长江驾引力量需求预测研究[J].南通航运职业技术学院学报,2012(2):19-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷兴中 张树奎 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏海事局船员考试中心,江苏南京211170
2. 江苏海事职业技术学院航海技术系,江苏南京211170 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前长江内贸船舶压港、滞港现象,运用灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型对长江内贸船舶进出港艘次进行预测,进而求得未来几年内贸驾引力量需求数量。结果表明,未来几年长江内贸驾引力量需求数量巨大,驾引力量短缺严重。
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| 关 键 词： | 内贸 GM(1 1)模型 需求 预测 |
Research on the Prediction of Pilot Demand for Domestic Trade Vessels in the Yangtze River |
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| LEI Xing-zhong,ZHANG Shu-kui.Research on the Prediction of Pilot Demand for Domestic Trade Vessels in the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Nantong Vocational & Technical Shipping College,2012(2):19-23. |
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| Authors: | LEI Xing-zhong ZHANG Shu-kui |
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| Institution: | 1. Dept. of Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu Maritime Affairs Bureau, Nanjing 211170, China 2. Dept. of Navigation Technology, Jiangsu Maritime Institute, Nanjing 211170, China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of pressure port and demurrage concerning domestic trade vessels in the Yangtze River, this article, applying GM, makes a prediction of the seconds of domestic trade vessels entering and leaving the port as well as its pilot demand in the Yangtze River in the following several years, which demonstrates a severe shortage of domestic trade vessel pilots |
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| Keywords: | Domestic trade GM Demand Prediction |
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