一种基于GPS和IC卡数据的城市公交出行分布推算方法

城市公交规划、管理工作迫切需要信息化技术给予定量的决策数据支持.公交出行分布数据通常基于居民出行调查获得,然而因其调查代价巨大不能作为常态化调查手段.短期的公交线网调整工作更依赖于现状的公交出行分布需求,本文由此提出了一种利用公交GPS和IC卡(含老年卡)数据推算现状公交出行分布的实用方法.当前在大城市常住人口使用IC卡作为公交支付手段已得到相当普及,采用基于车载GPS和乘客IC卡记录能够推断得到全日公交OD数据并用于公交出行量回归模型的标定.模型检验通过后,可结合人口数据和就业岗位资料用标定模型计算以投币作为主要付费方式的流动人口公交OD；叠加两部分OD得到完整的城市公交出行分布结果.该模型的有效性通过2010年郑州市综合交通调查实践得以验证,对其它城市具有借鉴意义.

An Urban Transit Distribution Projection Method Based on GPS and IC Data

Urban public transport planning and management is in urgent need of information technology to give quantitative data support in decision-making. Transit trip distribution data is usually acquired by residents travel survey, however, because of its huge cost it cannot be the normal means of investigation. Short-term transit network adjustment is more dependent on the status of the transit trip distribution. Thus this paper presents a practical method for transit distribution based on GPS and IC card （including the ones for seniors） data. Currently using IC card as a means of payment has become very popular in large cities. Daily transit OD data can be inferred by GPS and IC records, which can be used in calibration of transit trips regression model. When checked, the regression model can be used to predict the transit OD of floating population who mostly pay the fee by cash. Afterwards, get the complete transit trip distribution by superposing the two parts of OD distribution. The validity of this model was tested by Zhengzhou 2010 comprehensive transportation survey, and it provides an useful reference for other cities.