| Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting |
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| 作者姓名： | 李相勇 严余松 蒋葛夫 |
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| 作者单位： | School of Traffic and Transportation，Southwest Jiaotong University，School of Traffic and Transportation，Southwest Jiaotong University，School of Traffic and Transportation，Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu 610031，China，Chengdu 610031，China，Chengdu 610031，China |
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| 摘 要： | IntroductionRoadaccidentsforecastingishelpfulforustofindoutthelawofroadaccidents ,andtoanalyzethetendencyofroadaccidentsunderexistingroadtrafficconditionsandtocontroltrafficsafety .Itisthebasisoftheevaluation ,planninganddecision makingofroadtrafficsafety…
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| 关 键 词： | Grey-Markov模型 交通事故预测 数学模拟 灰色预测理论 随机波动 |
Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting |
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| Li Xiangyong Yan Yusong Jiang Gefu.Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2003,11(2):192-197. |
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| Authors: | Li Xiangyong Yan Yusong Jiang Gefu |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents. |
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| Keywords: | grey-Markov model road accidents forecasting |
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