轨道交通客流预测的“略”与“术”——以广州市轨道交通客流预测为例

轨道交通客流预测在工程可行性论证中发挥着重要作用。分析了目前国内轨道交通客流预测的现状和存在的问题。从战略和战术两个层面阐述了广州市轨道交通客流预测的应对方法。提出战略的核心是通过完善模型形成快速反应以主动适应城市规划的不确定性。战术层面从适应性、互动性、系统性和精细性4个方面系统地论述了广州市轨道交通客流预测的作法。最后，从人、财、物、机制等方面对改善客流预测模型运作提出了建议。

Strategies and Scenarios for Rail Transit Passenger Forecasting: taking Guangzhou as an example

Passenger volumes forecasting plays an im portant role in the feasibility study of construction of rail transit systems. In regards of existing volumes forecast ing of rail transit and their shortcomings in China, this pa per elaborates Guangzhou＇ s countermeasures from two different levels： strategies and scenarios. The core strate gies are to form fast reactions through modeling improve ment as to be initiatively compatible with the uncertainty of urban planning. The paper illustrates how Guangzhou conducts volumes forecasting for rail transit projects from four aspects, i.e. adaptability, interaction, system, and preciseness. Finally, the paper proposes suggestions to deal with human, financial, material, and institutional impacts on passenger forecasting.