中国机动化发展特征与政策研究

为优化城市机动化发展模式与路径，首先从机动化的目的和效应两个方面界定了机动化内涵，分析了个体机动化和公共机动化两类模式特征及相应的衡量指标。然后，应用历史数据研究了中国汽车产业政策、道路运输市场政策和城市交通政策与机动化发展历程的关系。研究结果表明，个体机动化政策效果明显优于公共机动化政策，发挥效应时间为1-2年，非机动交通政策对个体与公共机动化模式都有重要影响。最后，针对中国机动化发展在能源、环境、交通等方面的制约，提出了统筹制定产业发展政策、合理制定城市交通发展政策、把握公共机动化政策推行时机和优化非机动交通政策四个方面的建议。

Motorization Development Characteristics and Policies in China

To optimize the motorization development process and strategies development, this paper first charily defines motorization in the objectives and expected outcome, followed by discussions on the char-acteristics of private and public motorization modes, as well as their respective measurement indicators. The relationship between policies （from automobile industrial, road transportation market, and urban trans-portation） and motorization development in China is investigated based on the historical data. The results show that the effects of policy on private motorization are significant comparing to the policies on the pub-lic motorization. Those effects begin to show in one to two years. The non-motorized transportation policy has important impacts on both private and public motorization process. Considering the constraints from energy, environment and transportation sections, the paper suggests the followings for the Chinese motor-ization development：establishing the transportation development policies in a holistic manner, reasonably making transportation development policy, seizing the opportunities for public motorization policy, and op-timizing non-motorized transportation policy.