信号控制交叉口交通冲突特征与影响因素

对信号控制交叉口交通冲突的特征及影响因素进行分析能够快速明确交叉口的安全隐患，并提出合理的改善措施。通过对上海市5个信号控制交叉口进行交通冲突调查，分析信号控制交叉口的冲突类型特征和冲突点空间分布规律，揭示信号控制交叉口交通冲突的致因。结果表明，最突出的机—机冲突类型为直行与对向左转冲突(45%)。另外，超过50%的机—非冲突以及机—人严重冲突与右转机动车相关。利用线性回归模型和负二项模型分析冲突及严重冲突的影响因素，结果显示左转专用相位、右转车比例及大型车比例是显著影响因素。

Traffic Conflict Characteristics and Influential Factors at Signalized Intersections

Based on traffic conflict characteristics and influential factors at signalized intersections, poten-tial dangers and corresponding measures can be identified quickly. Through investigating the traffic con-flicts at five signalized intersections in Shanghai, this paper discusses the conflict types and spatial distribu-tion of conflict points so as to identify the cause of traffic conflicts. The results show that the most serious type of conflicts among motor vehicles is between straight-go and left-turn traffic (45%). Besides, over 50% of conflicts between motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles or pedestrians are related to right-turn traffic. By analyzing influential factors of conflict and severe conflict using negative binomial model and linear regression model, the paper concludes that special left-turn phase, proportion of heavy vehicle, and proportion of right-turn vehicles are the significant influential factors.