铁路旅客列车晚点的贝叶斯网络模型研究

通过分析导致铁路旅客列车晚点的设备、人为和环境等各种影响因素,运用能较好解决不确定性问题的贝叶斯网络,建立铁路旅客列车晚点的贝叶斯网络模型.利用Matlab中的BN推理工具软件包BNT计算出基本事件的后验概率.最后,通过实例数据分析得出了影响铁路旅客列车晚点的重要因素,为相关工作人员提供了一定的理论参考依据.

Research on Railway Passenger Train Delays Based on Bayesian Network

The operation of passenger train is a complex system, which is the result of coordination work between each subsystem. However,the passenger train delays could completely disrupt the deployment of the various aspects of the work, and directly affects the transportation efficiency and the improvement of service quality. In this paper,a Bayesian network model is built for railway passenger train delay by analy- zing the factors leading to the railway passenger train delay from the device, personal and environmental as- pects, and by using Bayesian networks, which can solve the uncertainty problem better. Then, the posterior probability of basic events is calculated by using Matlab with the BN reasoning tool software BNT. Finally, by analysising the example,the important influence factors that effect the passenger train delays are given, and certain theory reference is provided for the related personnel.