基于灰色马尔可夫组合模型的在役桥梁承载力模糊可靠性预测

在桥梁管理中，由于桥梁承载能力受到荷载、环境、材料等多种因素的影响，具有很大的不确定性，而马尔可夫模型能够以概率的形式反映出这种不确定性,因而预测的结果更为客观，可靠性相对较高。将灰色系统预测模型与马尔可夫概率预测模型相结合，用于我国桥梁承载能力的预测。

Fuzzy Reliability Forecast for Existing Bridge Based on Markov Process and Grey Theory

In bridge management system, bearing capacity of existing bridge is uncertainty for the effects of factor such as loading, surrounding and material. While Markov model can reflect that uncertainty using probability form, so it is more objective and reliable in bridge bearing capacity prediction. Method of prediction for existing bridge reliability on bearing capacity is put forward in this paper based on Markov process and grey theory.