Road Traffic Accidents Model and Its Application Based on Driver's Self-Mistakes

To improve the traditional analysis method of driver accident, the paper analyzes the cases of road accidents and survey data from the microscopic aspect. An accident causes model is formulated to describe the driver' own mistake characteristics and its relation with the road traffic accidents. The weights of key influencing factors are determined by the improved AHP method and its influencing level is quantitatively analyzed. The improved AHP method reduces the impact of subjective factors on the analysis accuracy. Results show that drivers' error rate of perception is approaching 50.2%, the error rate of judgment is 38.9%, and the operational error rate accounts for only 10.9%. The main factors cause traffic accidents are drivers' low abilities to perceive and judge risk and accident. The results provide the scientific basis for the drivers' self-mistakes and accident prevention.