动车组产品可靠性评估与验证

针对动车组整车和零部件等产品的不同特点,按照不同车型、不同产品、不同运用条件、不同故障后果和不同置信度要求等分类评估的原则,研究动车组产品的可靠度评估方法,包括可靠度置信下限评估方法和故障率置信上限评估方法;以提高验证效率、效益为目标,从最少验证样本、最短验证时间、最低验证成本的原则出发,研究无故障状况下动车组可靠度和故障率的验证方法;示例进行动车组整车故障率和轴箱轴承可靠度评估与验证。结果表明:采用评估与验证方法,可得到动车组产品置信度分别为50%,90%,95%,99%,产品可靠度下限分别为0.9~0.99,0.991~0.999时所需试验验证样本数量,以及百万km故障率上限分别为0.1~1.0时所需累计试验验证里程,实现基于可靠性目标要求的定量评估和验证考核。

Reliability Evaluation and Verification of EMU Products

In light of the different characteristics of EMUs,components and other products,according to the classification evaluation principle of different models,different products,different operation conditions,different failure consequences,different confidence requirements and so on,the reliability evaluation methods of EMU products were studied,including the evaluation method of lower confidence limit of reliability and the evaluation method of the upper confidence limit of failure rate.To improve the verification efficiency and benefit,from the principle of the minimum verification samples,the shortest verification time and the lowest verification cost,the verification method of EMU reliability and failure rate under failure-free condition was studied.Examples were used to evaluate and verify the EMU failure rate and the reliability of axle box bearing.Results show that:by using the evaluation and verification method,the number of samples required for test verification can be obtained when the confidence levels of EMU products are 50%,90%,95%and 99%respectively,and the lower limits of product reliability are 0.9—0.99 and 0.991—0.999 respectively,as well as the accumulated test verification mileage required when the upper limit of failure rate per million km is 0.1—1.0 respectively,so as to realize the quantitative assessment and verification assessment based on reliability target requirements.