用于铁路轨道不平顺预测的综合因子法

根据轨道结构存在的不平顺特征及其形成原因,提出基于数字统计理论、信号处理理论和轨道不平顺检测数据的综合因子法,对各类轨道不平顺的发展趋势进行预测,为铁路线路的维修提供参考依据。方法的核心思想是基于对同一地段轨道不平顺变化规律相近的认知,即轨道在线路脆弱的地方会更脆弱,在不平顺幅值较大的地方其不平顺发展也相应较大。综合考虑影响轨道不平顺发展的众多因素,如轨道系统各部件的材料影响、铁路施工以及各种运营条件、环境因素等,将这些影响因素共同作用后的整体效果反映在构建的预测模型中,给出相应的综合因子和随机量的参数矩阵,并建立轨道不平顺管理的分级概念。计算结果表明,综合因子法能够较好地预测轨道不平顺的变化。

Integrating Factor Method for Predicting the Developing Trend of Railway Track Irregularity

According to the characteristics and the formation cause of track irregularity,the integrating factor method is put forward based on numerical statistics theory,signal processing theory and the detection data of track irregularity.The method is adopted to predict the developing trend of various track irregularities and provide the reference frame for railway track maintenance.The core of this method is based on the knowledge about the similarity between the change rules of track irregularity within the same section.Namely,the track will be more vulnerable in the weak section of railway line.The development of track irregularity will also be greater when the amplitude value of irregularity is larger.Numerous factors which influence the development of track irregularity are synthetically taken into account,such as materials adopted for each component of track system,railway construction,various operation conditions and the environment factor,etc.The effects acted on jointly by these factors are taken as a whole and reflected in the established prediction model.Corresponding parameter matrix of integrating factor and random quantity are provided and the classification concept for the management of track irregularity is set up.Calculation results show that the integrating method can better predict the developing trend of track irregularity.