城市轨道交通灾害链演化网络模型及其风险分析——以地铁水灾为例

灾害链式演变是重大灾害形成的主要诱因,探明城市轨道交通典型灾害间的链式衍生发展规律对保障地铁运营安全意义重大。基于灾变链式理论和复杂网络理论,对城市轨道交通灾害事件的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体特征及灾情链式传递规律展开研究;并以地铁水灾为例,构建灾害链演化网络模型;而后采用出入度、子网节点数、所含支链数和介数中心度分析法,对该过程进行风险分析。结论为:在城市轨道交通灾害演化系统中,各类灾害连接紧密、链生性强,传递性高;在地铁水灾演化网络中,车站用电设备故障、隧道结构性能劣化和地下承压水上升是风险控制的关键节点。研究成果为构建地铁运营风险预控与断链减灾体系提供理论支持。

Urban Rail Transit Disaster Chain Evolution Network Model and Its Risk Analysis —Taking Subway Flood as an Example

Disaster chain evolution is a main inducement to disasters, and it has a great significance for subway operation safety to research the chain-derived development law of typical disasters in urban rail transit. Based on the chain-styled theory of disaster and complex network theory, the disaster events of urban rail transit are studied in terms of hazard factors, disaster-pregnant environment, hazard bearing body and chain-styled transmission law. With reference to the metro flood, the network model of disaster chains evolution is established. Then risk analysis is carried out based on the out-in degree, the number of subnet nodes and branches, and the betweenness centrality during disaster evolution. It is concluded that the various disasters have the characteristics of close connection, strong chain style and high transitivity in the disaster evolution system of urban rail transit. In the metro flood evolution network, station power equipment, tunnel structure performance and underground confined water are the key factors in risk control. The results provide a theoretical support for building the risk pre-control and chain-cutting disaster mitigation system of subway operation.