基于前景理论和直觉模糊集的编组站布局调整决策研究

为提升编组站布局调整方案的决策水平,考虑未来不同的运输需求增长状态对决策者行为心理的影响,提出基于前景理论与直觉模糊集的编组站布局调整决策模型。首先,构建编组站布局调整方案比选指标体系,涵盖空间分布的合理性、适应性、协调性、对社会的影响、经济性5个指标层;其次,利用直觉模糊集表征决策者对方案属性的主观评价值及犹豫度,并构造得分函数得到方案属性的综合得分值;然后,引入前景理论考虑决策者在不同运输需求增长状态下的不确定型偏好,结合灰靶决策理论构造三参照点计算编组站布局调整方案的综合前景价值;最后采用VIKOR决策方法对方案进行优选。通过某枢纽编组站布局调整实例,研究结果表明,A2为最优调整方案,与实际确定方案相吻合,验证了决策模型的有效性和实用性。

Research on Marshalling Station Layout Adjustment Based on Foreground Theory and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set Decision

In order to improve the decision-making level of the marshalling station layout adjustment scheme, a decision-making model of marshalling station layout adjustment based on foreground theory and intuitionistic fuzzy sets is proposed in consideration of the influence of future different transportation demand growth states on the behavioral psychology of decision makers. Firstly, a marshalling station layout adjustment plan comparison index system is constructed, covering five index layers of the rationality of spatial distribution adaptability, coordination, social impact and economy. Secondly, the intuitionistic fuzzy set is used to characterize the decision-maker's subjective evaluation value and hesitation degree of the program attribute, and the score function is constructed to obtain the comprehensive score value of the program attribute. Then, the foreground theory is introduced to consider the uncertainty preference of the decision maker in different transportation demand growth states, and the gray target decision theory is utilized to construct three-reference point to calculate the comprehensive foreground value of the marshalling station layout adjustment scheme. Finally, the VIKOR decision method is used to optimize the scheme. The research results of the layout adjustment of a hub marshalling station show that A2 is the optimal adjustment scheme and consistent with the actual scheme, and the validity and practicability of the decision model are verified.