都市圈区域轨道交通客流预测研究

依据都市圈的特点提出了以轨道交通站点为中心,以合理的客流吸引半径的圆形范围作为交通小区进行客流预测的思路.研究了轨道交通车站客流的合理步行区及合理交通区,把车站客流划定为一、二、三级吸引范围;提出了以车站节点为中心,以客流吸引范围为半径的圆形范围作为交通小区,并划分为一、二、三类小区,选择各类小区之间出行的步行时间矩阵、等车时间矩阵、在乘时间矩阵、交通费用矩阵等作为客流预测Logit模型参数矩阵.

Study on Metropolitan Rail Transit Passenger Forecast

Informative-abstract With the acceleration of urbanization, metropolitan belt, megalopolis space or urban groups come into being consequently. The formation of metropolitan area dem ands of a new development strategy for the internal transportation, which calls for the establishment of a rapid rail transit system with larger capacity as the backbone of the integrated passenger transport network, so as to achieve sustai nable development of the metropolitan region. Therefore, it is very necessary to make a study of the inter-city rail transit planning in a metropolitan area, in which the passenger forecast is the prerequisite and a key for this planning. At present, there have been already a lot of technical studies on urban rail tran sit passenger forecast, but few studies are conducted in the direction of traffi c flow prediction technology in metropolitan area. Therefore, it's high time to combine the respective features of metropolitan regions, and explore ways to sol ve newly occurred problems. This paper discusses the passenger forecasting method based on the traffic zone which centers on the rail transit hub and the attrac tive radius for passengers, studies the reasonable walking zone of passengers an d the traffic zone of the rail transit hub. A model of attractive radius for pas sengers is brought forward and marked by three grades: the perimeter walk-time, the wait-time and the riding time, the out-of-pocket cost is taken as its par ameter of utility matrixes. Finally, a model of passenger forecasting based on utility matrix is also presented.