| 基于周期时变特点的城市轨道交通短期客流预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王奕,徐瑞华.基于周期时变特点的城市轨道交通短期客流预测研究[J].城市轨道交通研究,2010,13(1):46-46,47-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王奕 徐瑞华 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学交通运输工程学院,201804,上海;同济大学交通运输工程学院,201804,上海 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了城市轨道交通客流的周期时变性特征,并根据该特征在GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的基础上改进了马尔科夫算法,以适用于城市轨道交通短期客流预测。用无偏GM(1,1)模型拟合系统的发展变化趋势,再以此为基础进行了马尔科夫链预测,并采用多转移矩阵排除客流数据中噪声数据的扰动。试验结果表明,改进后的模型在城市轨道交通客流短期预测中具有良好的精确性。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市轨道交通 灰色马尔科夫模型 短期客流预测 |
Forecast of Short-term Metro Passenger Flow Based on the Periodically Varying Characteristics |
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| Wang Yi,Xu Ruihua.Forecast of Short-term Metro Passenger Flow Based on the Periodically Varying Characteristics[J].Urban Mass Transit,2010,13(1):46-46,47-49. |
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| Authors: | Wang Yi Xu Ruihua |
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| Institution: | Wang Yi,Xu Ruihua Department of Transportation,Tongji University,201804,Shanghai,China |
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| Abstract: | According to the periodical time-varying characteristics of rail transport volume,the GM(1,1)-Markov Algorithm has been improved to predict the short-term passenger flow of rail transport.On the basis of the system development tendency,which is fitted by Unbiased GM (1,1) model,Markov Chain is adopted for prediction,and the noisy data disturbance in passenger flow is eliminated by using the method of multi-transition matrix.The improved model is proved to be precise in predicting short-term passenger flow o... |
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| Keywords: | urban mass transit Gray Markov model forecast of passenger flow in short terms |
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