恐怖袭击情境下地铁车站应急疏散仿真方法改进研究

在梳理分析国内外研究文献与实践状况的基础上,针对恐怖袭击情境下地铁车站的乘客应急疏散仿真,首先建议基于疏散心理和行为特征对乘客群体进行科学分类并差异化地赋予不同类型乘客相应的行为仿真参数,以提高仿真结果的可靠性;其次,在简要分析恐怖袭击情境下地铁车站乘客应急疏散心理与行为响应过程的基础上,重点通过情境问卷调查研究了特定恐怖袭击情境下乘客的典型应急疏散选择行为,并根据乘客不同的应急疏散行为反应模式对乘客群体进行了科学分类;然后,在分析给出乘客应急疏散心理与行为相关主要影响因素的基础上,通过多项logit模型分析,标明了乘客分类的显著影响因素,并利用本次情境问卷调查结果数据和上海市人口普查相关数据,估算了特定恐怖袭击情境下上海地铁车站乘客群体分类比例;最后,运用Massmotion人群疏散仿真软件,基于乘客的科学分类,对照进行了相应的实例疏散仿真,仿真结果的比较分析表明,对乘客群体进行科学分类并对不同类型乘客赋予相应的行为仿真参数会对应急疏散仿真结果产生显著影响。

Research on the Improvement of Metro Station Passenger Emergency Evacuation Simulation Method in the Context of Terrorist Attacks

On the basis of reviewing domestic and international research essays and implementation scenarios,the simulation of passenger emergency evacuation in metro station in the context of terrorist attacks was conducted.Firstly,passengers are classified scientifically based on evacuation psychology and behavioral characteristics,and respective behavior parameters were assigned to passengers of different types with diversification,so that the simulation results can be more reliable.Secondly,on the basis of primary analysis of passenger emergency evacuation psychology and behavior response process,the typical emergency evacuation choice behavior was studied mainly through scenario questionnaires,and passengers were classified scientifically according to the correspondent emergency evacuation behavior response patterns.Thirdly,on the basis of analyzing the major factors related to and influencing passenger evacuation psychology and behavior,through multiple logit model analysis,the significant influential factors for passenger classification was highlighted.Combining the research result data of the adopted questionnaire and relative data from Shanghai Population Census,the ratio of classified passenger groups in Shanghai rail transit stations in specific context of terrorist attacks were estimated.Finally,adopting Massmotion crowd evacuation simulation software,real evacuation cases targeting whether the passenger classification was scientific or not were simulated.The comparative analysis of simulation results has shown that to classify the passengers scientifically and to assign correspondent behavior simulation parameters have significant influence on the emergency evacuation simulation results.