中国城市轨道交通发展的战略分析

尽管中国多数大城市的交通需求和城市结构形成了建设轨道交通的基础客流条件，但在城市经济能力、城市交通结构与城市交通规划等方面，城市之间差异较大，鉴此，文章从多角度深入剖析了中国大城市轨道交通可持续发展的诸多影响因素，并运用多元分析法，得出基于6大类20个评价指标的22个城市的轨道交通发展条件掉序，其中前10名城市与当前城市竞争力的捧名的相关系数为0．906，具有较高的同构性。可见，当前首选北京、上海等大城市建设轨道交通是恰当的，其他城市则需要择机而动。

Anaiyses on the Strategy of Uroan Rait Transit in China

Though the traffic demands and the urban strudure of most of the large cities in China have formed the foundation passenger flow conditions for the construdion of the mass transit, there are greater differences among the cities in the aspects of the urban economic capability, the urban traffic structure and the urban traffic planning. On these bases, the article makes deep analyses from multiple angles for the various factors affecting the sustainable development of the mass transitfor the large cities in China and obtains the sequences of conditions for developing the mass transit in the 22 cities based on the