基于未确知测度理论的隧道施工瓦斯灾害风险评价

选取煤层厚度、煤层瓦斯含量、回风流平均瓦斯浓度、相对瓦斯涌出量、岩石类型、连通封闭性、深度值、隧道跨度、隧道长度、通风风速和涌水量等11项瓦斯灾害指标作为隧道施工瓦斯灾害风险评价指标体系,并建立各指标的等级标准。将序关系分析法(G1)和反熵权法(AEW)运用拉格朗日乘子法确定组合权重,构建各指标的单指标测度函数,并计算出各指标的综合测度评价向量。为了优化未确知测度置信度识别准则,引进集对分析(SPA)关联系数确定各隧道的瓦斯灾害风险等级。并对24个瓦斯隧道进行瓦斯灾害评价,并和FDA法评价结果和现场实测结果进行对比,精度达到91.7%,基本符合实际情况,表明了该评价方法合理有效,可为隧道施工瓦斯灾害评价提供理论参考。

Risk assessment of gas disaster in tunnel construction based on unascertained measurement theory

Eleven gas disaster indexes,such as coal seam thickness,coal seam gas content,average gas concentration of return air flow,relative gas emission,rock type,connectivity and sealing,depth value,tunnel span,tunnel length,ventilation wind speed and water inflow,were selected as the risk assessment index system of gas disaster in tunnel construction.The grade standards of each index were established.The order relation analysis method(G1)and the anti-entropy weight method(AEW)were used to determine the combination weight,construct the single index measurement function of each index,and calculate the comprehensive measurement evaluation vector of each index.In order to optimize the recognition criteria of unascertained measure confidence,set pair analysis(SPA)correlation coefficient was introduced to determine the risk level of gas disaster in each tunnel.And 24 gas tunnels were evaluated for gas disaster,and compared with the results of FDA method and field measurement.The accuracy reached 91.7%,basically in line with the actual situation.The result indicates that the evaluation method is reasonable and effective,which can provide theoretical reference for the evaluation of gas disaster in tunnel construction.