川藏铁路工程物资供应保障策略的系统动力学仿真研究

川藏铁路工程建设所需物资运距远、运量大、风险高,物资供应保障需要综合考虑道路和仓储的可靠性问题。分析川藏铁路物资供应的特点及关键影响因素,采用系统动力学方法构建包括物资供应、施工进度、施工技术等3个子系统的物资供应保障模型,对3种组合策略进行了仿真分析。研究结果表明:构建的系统动力学模型可靠有效,路网和物资转运基地相互配合可有效提高物资运输的可靠性,工地物资库存量与工程进度动态挂钩有利于减少工程窝工。

System dynamic simulation of material supply support strategy of Sichuan-Tibet railway project

Material supply of Sichuan-Tibet railway project possesses the characteristics of high-hazard, long transportation distance and high volume. The reliability of road and storage need to be taken into account in material supply strategy. The characteristics and key influencing factors of material supply of Sichuan-Tibet railway project were analyzed. A system dynamic simulation model of material supply assurance system integrating four subsystems, including material supply, construction schedule and construction technology, was developed. The portfolio strategy of three key influencing factors which were road grade, material transfer base and material reserves in construction site, was simulated. The result shows that the inter-relation of factors within the material supply assurance system in line with the actual situation. The model can effectively simulate the material supply support strategy of Sichuan-Tibet railway project. The mutual complementation of road network and material transfer base can help to improve reliability of material supply system effectively. The dynamic link of stock of goods in site warehouse and construction schedule is in favor of reducing engineering slowdown.