软土路基固结沉降机理及其预测方法研究

针对软土路基沉降难以预测的实际情况，对软土路基沉降发展规律及其特点进行了深入讨论，提出了软土路基沉降发展的发生-发展-稳定-极限四阶段划分法。在此基础上，基于3种社会经济预测S型成长曲线模型，引入组合预测的思想，提出了一种预测软土路基沉降发展规律的变权重组合预测方法，并采用数学规划方法进行了求解，结合某具体工程对预测方法进行了验证。结果表明，该模型预测效果比其他单一模型具有明显的优越性，其预测曲线与实测数据曲线吻合良好，且分析方法灵活，为软土路基沉降发展预测提供了一种有效而实用的方法，具有一定的工程实用价值。

Study on the developing and forecasting of the settlement in soft clay roadbed

Due to the difficult forecast of the soft clay roadbed settlement, this paper firstly studies the developing law and characteristics of soft clay roadbed settlement. The conclusion has been obtained that the settlement developing experiences occurrence - growth - stabilization - terminal four stages. Then based on the S - type growth curve used in economic prediction, a variable - weight combination S - type growing model has been established. Finally, combined with a engineering, the model is verified. The analysis of engineering practice indicates that the effect of the prediction by using this model is superior to the other single model and the method is so flexible that it offers an effective and applied way in forecasting the settlement in soft clay roadbed, which shows that this method has great theoretic significance and practical value in preventing roadbed sink and guaranteeing the road behavior in practice.