西部陆海新通道货运量预测研究

西部陆海新通道在区域协调发展格局中具有战略地位,对我国深化陆海双向开放、推进西部大开发形成新格局等具有重要意义。在分析西部陆海新通道总体规划及铁路网规划的基础上,结合西部陆海新通道功能定位,分析货运量影响因素,从区域间货运量、对外贸易货运量、分流沿江通道货运量3个方面进行运量预测。针对每部分货运量,在分析历年货运量的基础上,综合采用多种预测方法,最终得到通道总货运量。西部陆海新通道货运量预测结果可以用于指导区域路网规划、运输组织优化及发展战略制定。

Research on Freight Volume Forecast of New Western Land-Sea Corridor

The new western land-sea corridor plays a strategic role in the regional coordinated development,which is of great significance to deepen the two-way opening of land and sea and promote the formation of a new pattern in the development of the western region.Based on the analysis of the overall planning of the new western land-sea corridor and the railway network planning and the functional position of the new western land-sea corridor,this paper analyses the factors affecting freight transport,and carries out traffic forecast from three aspects:regional freight volume,freight volume of foreign trade,and freight volume diverted from the channel along the Yangtze River.A variety of forecasting methods are used to make the prediction considering historical data,and the total freight volume is obtained.The forecast results of freight volume can be used to guide regional railway network planning,optimize railway transportation organization,and formulate development strategy.