突发事件下的列车运行图稳定性分析

由于列车在运行过程中受突发事件的影响不能保证完全按列车运行图行车，本文提出列车运行图稳定性指标，引入元胞自动机（CA）模型对列车运行进行仿真，计算列车运行图稳定性指标，以京沪高速铁路为例进行列车运行仿真，通过列车实绩运行图，得到列车运行图稳定性与突发事件的发生概率及列车运行最大速度之间的关系，设计列车在某突发概率情况下为保证列车运行图的稳定性而采用的最大运行速度。提出了一种新的列车运行图稳定性的分析方法，得到的在不同条件下的列车最大允许速度，对列车运行图的编制及日常列车运行调度工作具有重要意义。

Stability analysis of train diagram in emergency

When the train operation process was affect by emergency, the train couldn’t be fully guaranteed to operate with train diagram. The paper put forward the stability index of train diagram, introduced Cellular Automaton(CA) model to simulation of the train operation process, calculated the stability index of train diagram, took the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway Line as an example to simulate the train operation, according to the actually train diagram, got the relationship among the emergency probability and the train maximum speed and train diagram stability, designed the train maximum speed in order to ensure the train diagram stability in the case of emergency probability, proposed a new analytical method for the train diagram stability, got maximum permissible speed in different conditions. It was with important significance for drawing up the train diagram and dispatching the train operation.