基于数据拟合的铁路车站旅客最高聚集人数计算研究

铁路车站旅客最高聚集人数是设计铁路客运站站房规模的主要依据之一。文章以成都东站为例，通过提取售/取票设备数据，统计旅客提前到站时间，采用对数正态、复合负指数、威布尔3种分布形式对旅客到站规律进行拟合分析，构建铁路车站最高聚集人数检算模型。试验结果表明，对数正态分布对铁路旅客提前到站规律拟合效果优于其他2种分布，基于最优拟合分布的计算结果更为精确，有利于精准掌握车站最高聚集人数。

Calculation of maximum number of gathering passengers in railway station based on data fitting

The maximum number of gathering passengers in railway stations is one of the main basis for designing the scale of railway passenger stations. Taking Chengdu East Railway Station as an example, by extracting the data of ticket selling and collecting equipment, this paper calculated the time of early arrival of passengers, and used three distribution forms of logarithmic normal, compound negative index, and Weibull to fit and analyze the rules of passengers arrival, and constructed the checking model of the maximum number of gathering passengers in railway stations. The test results show that the fitting effect of logarithmic normal distribution on the early arrival rule of railway passengers is better than the other two distributions.The calculation result based on the optimal fitting distribution is more accurate, which is conducive to accurately grasp the maximum number of gathering passengers in railway stations.