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改进的轨道质量指数线性预测模型研究
引用本文:常欢,刘仍奎,方圆.改进的轨道质量指数线性预测模型研究[J].铁路计算机应用,2010,19(6):1-3.
作者姓名:常欢  刘仍奎  方圆
作者单位:1. 北京交通大学,轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京,100044
2. 乌鲁木齐铁路局,工务处,乌鲁木齐,830011
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划课题 
摘    要:针对轨道不平顺的发展,提出轨道质量指数(TQI)变化的线性预测模型。该模型使用平均法计算出一个适用于某一线路区段轨道不平顺的斜率K值,利用该K值建立线性预测模型,对轨道不平顺发展TQI值进行预测。影响轨道不平顺发展的因素复杂,不平顺的发展趋势表现出一种非线性变化的特点,俗称"浴盆型"曲线。提出改进的轨道质量指数TQI预测模型,即多阶段轨道不平顺线性预测模型(MPLM)。

关 键 词:铁路  轨道  轨道质量指数  预测

Research of improved linear prediction model of Track Quality Index
CHANG Huan,LIU Reng-kui,FANG Yuan.Research of improved linear prediction model of Track Quality Index[J].Railway Computer Application,2010,19(6):1-3.
Authors:CHANG Huan  LIU Reng-kui  FANG Yuan
Institution:1.State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety;Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;2.Track Department of Urumqi Railways Administration;Urumqi 830011,China)
Abstract:Experts from home and abroad had developed a linear prediction model for the development of track irregularity using TQI(Track Quality Index).The model was a linear model built on a track irregularity slope of K for a particular track section and was used to forecast the value of TQI.Many factors affected track condition,due to the common effects of these factors,the track irregularity changing curve was nonlinear,called "Tub Curve".Improved linear prediction model had been developed,called Multi-Phase Linear Model(MPLM).
Keywords:railway  track  Track Quality Index(TQI)  prediction
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