“十三五”城轨交通发展形势及未来发展趋势分析

通过调查研究,从城市轨道交通行业发展的全局和宏观视野层面,综合国家城镇化进程、社会汽车保有量和道路交通容量、国际大都市的公共交通承担出行比数据、中国特大型及大型城市的城轨交通规划和建设等多方面情况,全面、系统、深入地分析和阐述中国城轨交通发展的社会内在需求和环境背景;结合国家发展战略和规划、当代的前沿技术、城轨交通各种制式的适应性、行业技术发展以及地方财政和投融资模式等各种因素,深入分析中国城轨交通未来5年发展的机遇和挑战,预估未来5年中国城轨交通发展的十大趋势,即:规模扩大化、发展差异化、结构网络化、制式多样化、行业标准化、系统智能化、技术自主化、资金多元化、市场国际化、地位战略化,并提出对策和策略,为中国以及世界其他国家的城轨交通发展提供重要参考与宝贵借鉴。

Status Quo and Future: Development of Urban Rail Transit During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period

The paper analyzes the development of the urban rail transit industry in China from an overall and macroscopic perspective.Multiple factors were considered,such as the degree of urbanization,private car ownership,capacity of roads,modal share of public transport in international metropolises,and planning and construction of urban rail transit systems in China's large and extra-large cities.A comprehensive,systematic,and in-depth analysis and explanation of the domestic social demands and environmental background for the development of urban rail transit in China is presented.By using national development strategy and plans,information on current cutting-edge technologies,adaptability of various urban rail transit modes,industrial technologies and local finances,and investment and financing models,the paper expounds the opportunities and challenges in terms of the development of urban rail transit in China over the next five years and predicts ten major trends.The predicted trends include expanded scales,differentiated development,network structure,multimodal transit systems,industrial standardization,intelligent systems,independently developed technology,diversified funding,internationalized markets,and strategic position.The current situation,development prospects,and future trends of urban rail transit in China are presented and corresponding measures and strategies are proposed.The findings can serve as an important and valuable reference for the development of urban rail transit in China and other countries.