Short‐term traffic flow prediction with linear conditional Gaussian Bayesian network |
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Authors: | Zheng Zhu Bo Peng Chenfeng Xiong Lei Zhang |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States;2. Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States |
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Abstract: | Traffic flow prediction is an essential part of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Most of the previous traffic flow prediction work treated traffic flow as a time series process only, ignoring the spatial relationship from the upstream flows or the correlation with other traffic attributes like speed and density. In this paper, we utilize a linear conditional Gaussian (LCG) Bayesian network (BN) model to consider both spatial and temporal dimensions of traffic as well as speed information for short‐term traffic flow prediction. The LCG BN allows both continuous and discrete variables, which enables the consideration of categorical variables in traffic flow prediction. A microscopic traffic simulation dataset is used to test the performance of the proposed model compared to other popular approaches under different predicting time intervals. In addition, the authors investigate the importance of spatial data and speed data in flow prediction by comparing models with different levels of information. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy will increase significantly when both spatial data and speed data are included. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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Keywords: | traffic flow prediction Bayesian network linear conditional Gaussian |
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