A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations |
| |
Authors: | Adam J Pel Michiel C J Bliemer Serge P Hoogendoorn |
| |
Institution: | (1) Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands |
| |
Abstract: | Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution
reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies
and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light
of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies
on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers’ decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice
to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time
choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit
model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on
the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice
models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current
limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|