Projecting adoption of truck powertrain technologies and CO2 emissions in line-haul networks

In this paper we present a mixed-integer linear program to represent the decision-making process for heterogeneous fleets selecting vehicles and allocating them on freight delivery routes to minimize total cost of ownership. This formulation is implemented to project alternative powertrain technology adoption and utilization trends for a set of line-haul fleets operating on a regional network. Alternative powertrain technologies include compressed (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) engines, hybrid electric diesel, battery electric (BE), and hydrogen fuel cell (HFC). Future policies, economic factors, and availability of fueling and charging infrastructure are input assumptions to the proposed modeling framework. Powertrain technology adoption, vehicle utilization, and resulting CO₂ emissions predictions for a hypothetical, representative regional highway network are illustrated. A design of experiments (DOE) is used to quantify sensitivity of adoption outcomes to variation in vehicle performance parameters, fuel costs, economic incentives, and fueling and charging infrastructure considerations. Three mixed-adoption scenarios, including BE, HFC, and CNG vehicle market penetration, are identified by the DOE study that demonstrate the potential to reduce cumulative CO₂ emissions by more than 25% throughout the period of study.