Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew |
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| Institution: | 1. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, 109 Lowry Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, United States;2. Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States;3. School of Public Administration, University of Central Florida, 12494 University Blvd., Orlando, FL 32816, United States;1. Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, United States;2. Systems Modelling and Controls Group, Argonne National Laboratory, United States;3. Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center, Argonne National Laboratory, United States;1. Department of Engineering Science, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines;2. Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines;3. Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines;1. Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 W Stadium Ave, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States;2. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, S Palmetto Blvd, Clemson, SC 29631, United States;3. Jack H. Brown College of Business and Public Administration, California State University – San Bernardino, 5500 University Pkwy, San Bernardino, CA 92407, United States;4. Brian Lamb School of Communication, Purdue University, 100 N University St, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States;5. School of Public Administration, University of Central Florida, 528 W Livingston St, Ste 446, Orlando, FL 32801, United States;1. Department of Geography, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA;2. Department of Civil Engineering, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-1324, USA;3. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus Dr., Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA;1. Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA;2. Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies, Florida International University, 3000 NE 151st St, North Miami, FL 33181, USA;1. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, 109 Lowry Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;2. School of Public Administration, University of Central Florida, 528 W. Livingston St., DPAC 448J, Orlando, FL 32816, USA;3. Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA;4. Brian Lamb School of Communication, Purdue University, 100 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47909, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk. |
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| Keywords: | Hurricane evacuation Partial household evacuation Random parameters Hurricane Matthew |
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