Development of a microscopic activity-based framework for analyzing the potential impacts of transportation control measures on vehicle emissions

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) have defined a set of transportation control measures to counter the increase in the vehicle emissions and energy consumption due to increased travel. The value of these TCM strategies is unknown as there is limited data available to measure the travel effects of individual TCM strategies and the models are inadequate in forecasting changes in travel behavior resulting from these strategies. The work described in this paper begins to provide an operational methodology to overcome these difficulties so that the impacts of the policy mandates of both CAAA and ISTEA can be assessed. Although the framework, as currently developed, falls well short of actually forecasting changes in traveler behavior relative to policy options designed to encourage emissions reduction, the approach can be useful in estimating upper bounds of certain policy alternatives in reducing vehicle emissions. Subject to this important limitation, the potential of transportation policy options to alleviate vehicle emissions is examined in a comprehensive activity-based approach. Conclusions are drawn relative to the potential emissions savings that can be expected from efficient trip chaining behavior, ridesharing among household members, as well as from technological advances in vehicle emissions control devices represented by replacing all of the vehicles in the fleet by vehicles conforming to present-day emissions technology.